How to Create Luck

Caldwell argues that moving faster gives a startup more chances to talk with customers, change direction, and build. He describes this as increasing the surface area for luck: the more experiments a team runs, the more chances it has to find something that works.

Brex was initially funded to build a VR headset, but its founders realized about six weeks into the batch that the idea was not working. They rapidly explored at least half a dozen alternatives and spoke with experts before settling on the idea that became Brex. Caldwell also cites Retool and Magic as companies that changed direction through fast experimentation.

Before starting a company, Caldwell recommends meeting and learning from interesting people, and doing things that feel uncomfortable. He points to Mark Zuckerberg making prototypes and small tools for users and friends as a way of creating opportunities. Founders can increase their chances by building quickly, sometimes on their own, and putting what they make in front of others.

Caldwell says founders can pursue ideas beyond their experience, especially when they have the technical skills to build the product. But someone with no relevant skills entering a highly technical field, such as biology, faces a much harder path. He also notes that outsiders may see potential that established experts have dismissed.

At Series A and later, Caldwell says companies can keep creating luck by moving quickly and maintaining a culture of experimentation. Hiring people who iterate quickly can help a team get more done in a given amount of time.