Building Confidence In Yourself and Your Ideas

Seibel describes founders who contacted 25 mostly startup companies about a product that did not exist, then decided to pivot when no one wanted to buy it. He says a small number of low effort conversations is weak validation, especially when those companies may not have the problem. Interviewing people, or sending a thousand LinkedIn messages and getting three replies, does not show whether customers will buy.

Seibel says a useful startup “rep” means carrying an idea far enough to learn from it, rather than discarding it after a few unanswered messages. Founders need to convince themselves that the work and the customer are worth their time. Conviction means staying focused through setbacks, such as difficult fundraising, without treating every new opinion as a reason to pivot.

Seibel warns that fear can make founders accept made up claims, such as an assumption that 75% of a YC batch had launched before it began. He also describes a founder who believed they needed $10,000 in monthly recurring revenue to raise, despite entering with only an idea. Founders who have bought software can draw on that experience by asking which sales approaches would have persuaded them as customers.

Seibel compares repeated pivots without learning to a random walk: changing direction repeatedly can leave founders exhausted after 18 months to two years without meaningful progress. He says an MVP should be viable for at least one person, and founders should be able to use their own product when it solves their problem. A practical starting point is to make one customer happy before planning for millions.

Seibel summarizes that startup work often takes longer than founders expect, while fear can undermine their judgment. He recommends solving a problem founders know and being their own first customer where that applies. Like exercise, good form matters: poor execution can prevent learning, cause injury, and make the work less enjoyable.